MADRID Last week, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, citing reliable sources, reported that Beirut had received diplomatic messages indicating an imminent attack by Israel.

According to these sources, the United Kingdom suggested mid-June as the date for this attack. In this context, the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, during a visit to the area under Israeli control near the Lebanese border, stated: "We are prepared for decisive action in the north. In any case, we will restore security in the region."

In recent weeks, the Israeli army has reduced the time interval between assassinations of senior Hezbollah commanders. One of the most recent was the commander Taleb Sami Abdulah, known as Haj Abu Talib, who was killed on Tuesday, June 11, in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon.

On June 13, Israeli sources announced the assassination of a "senior Hezbollah official" following an attack on a house in the city of Janata in southern Lebanon. Some Iranian journalists reported the possibility that the target of this attack was Sayed Hashem Safiuddin, Hezbollah's executive head and second-in-command. At present, this information has not been confirmed.

To understand Israel's current reaction, it is crucial to recognize how Hezbollah has significantly challenged Israel's aerial supremacy. In addition to downing drones, the group has targeted Israeli fighter jets, forcing them to retreat from Lebanese airspace on two occasions last week. Hezbollah has also managed to infiltrate Israel with its own drones without being detected or intercepted and has attacked the Iron Dome system.

For the first time in history, Hezbollah has established a "no-go zone" within Israeli territory, forcing tens of thousands of Israeli citizens to flee their settlements in the north. Reports indicate that about 40% of them do not plan to return to their homes once the conflict ends. The group is exploiting tensions between northern settlers and the Israeli government, based on accusations of state negligence towards this "peripheral" region. This strategy aligns with Hezbollah's long-term approach of weakening Israel through internal discord and external attacks.

By using northern Israel as a "laboratory," Hezbollah is testing its weapons and reversing the tactics that Israel has long employed against Lebanon, according to Amal Saad, a professor and expert on Hezbollah. Saad emphasizes that "it is evident that Israel now faces the most significant threat in its history and is fighting against a new kind of enemy."

Hezbollah's current approach marks a significant shift from its previous strategy, which primarily focused on preventing an Israeli occupation and achieving victory through mere survival. Now, Hezbollah has moved beyond defensive measures to take the offensive against Israel, engaging in a prolonged war of attrition. The movement's goals have expanded considerably beyond simple defense and the liberation of Lebanese territory; it now seeks to compel Israel to change its behavior and calculations by imposing unprecedented costs.

Rather than countering Israel's "complexity" with the "simplicity" that Nasrallah characterized during the 2006 war, Hezbollah now confronts that complexity with audacity and more advanced weaponry.

Hezbollah's strategy, as highlighted by its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, is "to pressure Israel to stop the war in Gaza." Nasrallah emphasized that Hezbollah is not seeking a large-scale war but warned: "If the enemy chooses to advance in that direction, we will not hesitate for a moment to engage, and the Israelis know this well." Previously, Seyed Hashem Safiuddin, head of Hezbollah's executive council, had warned Israel about the group's readiness to use new weapons on the battlefield.

The acting Iranian Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, in an interview with an Iranian media outlet regarding a potential Israeli attack on Lebanon, stated: "We advise the Zionists to remember the defeats they suffered in Lebanon in 2000 and 2006. The Zionists have faced historic defeats at the hands of the Lebanese people and resistance. If the Zionists want to move from the quagmire of Gaza to the quagmire of Lebanon, we will never advise them to make such a grave strategic error. Both the resistance in Palestine and Lebanon possess a strength that will not allow the Zionists to achieve any of their objectives."

During his weekly press conference, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanani, also addressed the possibility of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, saying, "Iran's policy is to support regional peace and stability, recognizing that the Zionist Entity represents the main source of insecurity in the region. The regime's threats towards Lebanon should be taken seriously by the United Nations, and any provocative action against the country's territorial integrity must be strongly condemned. The supporters of the Zionist regime, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, have a dual responsibility in this regard. With their influence, they must cease backing and prevent the belligerence of the Zionist regime. The stability, security, and territorial integrity of Lebanon should be considered by all parties. The Lebanese army, government, and people have the right to respond to any aggressive action, and resistance against occupation ensures stability and security in Lebanon. The Zionists must understand that the resistance system in the region will not remain passive in the face of any adventurous action against Lebanon and its sovereignty."

Hezbollah seems to believe that all these threats and maneuvers are mere bluster, recognizing that Israel is in a much weaker position than ever to initiate a war of such magnitude. This vulnerability is partly due to the demonstration of strength by the Lebanese resistance movement in recent months.